So get out your calculators! In a change from past Democratic caucuses, the party will release three sets of results: "the first expression of preference" before the realignment, the "final expression of preference" after realignment and state delegate equivalents the number used to determine the "winner" in past results.
The final expression number — rather than the first expression — is used to determine who gets delegates and who doesn't. Another change: Only members of nonviable groups will be allowed to realign. In the past, candidates who had initially hit 15 percent could lose supporters in the realignment.
But for this cycle, the initial 15 percent support gets locked in. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans select their candidate via a simple secret ballot. There is no shuffling from one corner of the caucus site to the other.
There is no 15 percent viability or realignment. And there's no mathematical formula to determine delegates awarded at each caucus site. With President Donald Trump receiving nominal GOP opposition, however, the Republican process in Iowa isn't as important to follow this presidential cycle.
The last two election cycles in Iowa have resulted in controversy on caucus night. On the Republican side in , Mitt Romney was named the early winner, but a closer — and later — examination revealed that Rick Santorum had won by a mere 34 votes.
And on the Democratic side in , Hillary Clinton edged Sanders by just 0. The activity on caucus night is electing delegates in each of Iowa's 1, precincts to the county convention. You can think of this like a TSA pre-check for the caucuses. If you're not registered to vote by February 3, fear not, you are able to register at your precinct on caucus night. And if you are registered with another party, you are also able to register as a Democrat on caucus night at your precinct.
As you walk in the door, you'll be given a card to write your first choice candidate on one side, and your second choice candidate on another side. More on this in a moment. Once everyone is checked in and filed into the room, there will be some brief speeches from the people in charge of leading the caucus and local officials.
Also, representatives from the campaigns can get up and speak in order to give a last-minute pitch to attendees. Once those speeches wrap up, it's time for the presidential preference portion of the night to begin. Again, rather than checking a box on a ballot, each candidate will have an area of the room where supporters are supposed to gather.
You would head to the designated area for your top choice to stand with fellow supporters. And remember that card you were handed on your way in the door? You would also write down that candidate's name where it's listed on that card. That will give the state party a backup in case there needs to be any recounting.
After everyone is gathered in their candidate's area, the caucus leaders will count how many people are in each group. This is where things get a little funky.
So in a room with a people in it, a candidate needs the support of at least 15 people to win delegates. Note: In some smaller precincts, the viability threshold is higher, but the process works the same. If you are backing a viable candidate, then you are done moving around for the evening. If you are with a candidate who has 14 percent support or less in the room, you'll be participating in a process known as realignment.
In previous years there were several rounds of realignment, but there will only be one round this year in an effort to speed the process up. If you're involved in realignment, you have a few options: Join a viable candidate's group, convince other people from non-viable groups to support your candidate to hit the viability threshold, or go join another non-viable candidate other than the one you supported to hit the viability threshold.
Alternatively, you could just go home. This realignment process is critical. If your candidate wasn't viable and you're looking for a new group, viable campaigns will be competing to try to win you over. If you're part of a well-organized campaign on the cusp of viability, your team will be desperately trying to try to pick off supporters of other non-viable campaigns. The best organized campaigns, with well-trained and experienced people on their side, are in strong positions to increase their size on caucus night.
Once you're with your final candidate's group, you would write the name of the candidate who you are supporting on the card you were handed when you walk in the door. This will again serve as a backup for the party. In , , people turned out to the Democratic caucus in what turned out to be a historically close race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
During the realignment, they have three main choices: they can support one of the already-viable candidates, try to convince other free agents to cluster together to push a previously-nonviable candidate over the viability threshold, or join an undecided group.
At the end of the night, state delegates are allocated to the candidates, according to the number of people who caucused for each.
This is where it could get confusing. But this year, those three numbers could look very different, leading multiple candidates to attempt to claim victory.
Some experts are preparing for mass confusion. The precinct-level delegates who were apportioned on the night of the caucuses will go on to county conventions in March. The delegates from the county conventions will go on to the congressional district conventions in April, as well as the state convention in June. Along the way, 27 district-level national delegates and four national alternates will emerge, as well as nine at-large national delegates and five Party Leaders and Elected Official PLEO delegates.
This is a long, drawn-out process, but the upshot is that Iowa will send delegates supporting various presidential candidates to the Democratic National Convention in July. Mostly because it insists on it. Iowa is the moment where you first get judged.
Write to Lissandra Villa at lissandra. Related Stories.
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